04. February 2009

And the winner is...

With some important elections ahead, German parties need to define themselves again and attract frustrated voters

Standing behind a privacy shield, a long sheet of paper in front of them and a pen in hand: On
Sunday, 18th of January, German voters began what some media outlets are calling the “Super election year”. The inhabitants have to vote in several federal states and choose their candidates for the European Parliament. More importantly in September 2009 polls open for the main German elections to build the next German “Bundestag” and therefore the government for the next four years.
The recent anticipated elections in the state of Hesse made it clear that neither of the two big parties currently running Germany, were able to convince the voters. While the social democratic SPD lost some 13 per cent of their voters, the conservative CDU were unable to profit from the their rivals struggle.
After the normal elections in Hesse in spring 2008 none of the parties was able to find a coalition to build the government. The results at that time showed an obvious move towards the left. Therefore Andrea Ypsilanty, main candidate for the social democrats, considered with the idea of forming a coalition with the Green Party and relying on the Left Party to vote for her as prime minister of Hesse. As the Left Party is still not fully accepted and because of their historic connection to the socialist party of the former German Democratic Republic, some members of the SPD moved in protest against this agreement.
Dealing with the financial crisis and the recession, German voters are also struggling to find a party to vote for in the main election in September.
It is quite obvious that the social democrats will have a hard time regaining the trust of the voters within this short period. As the crisis in Hesse did not stop there, but actually had consequences for personnel on a national level and produced factions within all party levels, the campaigns for the elections in September certainly are a tough mission. But chancellor candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier, current foreign minister of Germany, still considers he has a chance of winning. Franz Müntefering, the national leader of the social democrats points out that the elections in Hesse do not necessarily represent the whole of Germany. Indicating that the CDU might not be as strong as their victory in Hesse would imply.
And the CDU cannot rest on the results of the elections in Hesse, as they only gained 0.4 per cent compared to the spring 2008 elections. Even though they are the leading party in Hesse again, they still cannot be called the winner of this poll.
That title surely goes to the liberal party FDP. Compared to the earlier elections they gained 6.8 per cent. With this result, the government of Germany actually lost their majority in the second national chamber, the “Bundesrat”. Thus the FDP tried to use their new power and threatened to blockade the chamber, if not asked to be involved in the upcoming decision process.
With regards to the elections in Hesse, the Green Party also has to be called a winner, even though they are not part of the new government of Hesse. But as they gained 6.2 per cent, it becomes obvious that a lot of voters preferred to vote for smaller parties.

Preview on the general elections

As CDU and SPD are currently building the German government together in a big coalition, neither of them can really claim anything to be their exclusive project or decision. Nor can they argue that an unpopular ruling is the sole fault of the other party.
The approval rate of the conservative chancellor Angela Merkel may be an advantage for the CDU. Surveys carried out by the “Researchgroup Elections” show that Angela Merkel is the most popular politician in Germany at the moment. While the social-democratic vice-chancellor and foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier scores second on the approval rate scale, the struggle of his party during the last months might play into the hands of the conservatives.
Another important fact is the possibility of coalitions. The FDP, who are actually gaining a lot of voters, clearly promised to build a coalition with the conservative CDU on a national level. None of the other parties have yet to make any announcements. The CDU will not move forward to do so, as there still is the risk that they have to opt for a big coalition with the SPD again. The SPD is leaving every possibility open, though a clear statement against a coalition with the Left Party might be helpful to them.