01. December 2008

Never change a winning Team?

How German Parties have to face an uncomfortable truth

Finding a coalition to govern Germany was so easy for years. But recently, with the new “Left-Party”, the parties seem to struggle. The old-established coalitions are rare and new ways need to be found.
Right from the beginning of the Federal Republic of Germany until 1998 either the ‘Christian Democratic Union’ or the ‘Social Democratic Party’ led the Country mainly using the ‘Free Democratic Party’ as the smaller partner.
Years ago a change to this two and a half party system was brought by the newly founded ‘Green Party’. In 1983 the first representatives of the ‘Green Party’ were elected into the German parliament, but the other parties mostly ignored them. The ‘Green Party’ was called unacceptable and, looking at the troubles insight the party itself, it did not seem to be able to rule a country. It took the German political system 15 years to adjust to this new situation. The coalition between the ‘Social Democratic Party’ and the ‘Greens’ in 1998 can be seen as the big changing point away from the two and a half party system, towards a four party system.
Ever since Germany had two favoured coalitions. The conservative ‘Christian Democrats’ joined in with the business-friendly ‘Free Democrats Party’, while the ‘Social Democrats’ build a government with the ‘Greens’. But since the ‘Party of Democratic Socialism’, the former socialists’ party of the GDR, merged with the left-orientated party ‘Labour and Social Justice – The Electoral Alternative’ into ‘the Left Party’, things are not that easy anymore.
Lately an increasing number of voters gave their vote for the ‘Left Party’. Experts see a left-shift of the whole republic of Germany. The elections in the states of Hamburg, Hesse and Lower Saxony could be an evidence for this movement. The ‘Left Party’ managed to get representatives in all three parliaments and therefore confused the “old order”. Non of the old-established coalitions is able to govern Hamburg or Hesse on their own anymore. Both federal states need to find new combinations for ruling their area. Only Lower Saxony can still stick to their conservativ-liberal government. The ‘Christian Democratic Union’ and the ‘Free Democratic Party’ together got more than half of the votes.
Another example for the left-shift in Germany is the recent election in Bavaria, where the left party got 4.4 per cent. Due to the five per cent barrier they did not get elected into the parliament, but for their first time standing for the election in Bavaria this outcome is quite astonishing. Especially while taking in mind that Bavaria was ruled by the conservative ‘Christian Socialist Union’ alone for over 20 years now. This Bavarian-based smaller sister party of the ‘Christian Democratic Union’ lost their absolute majority due to the strong outcome of the Left-Party and therefore they had to form a coalition with the ‘Free Democrats Party’.
It seems that the Germans still need to find a way of dealing with this new five-party-system. And to adjust with the new situation, German politicians need to go new ways. The ‘Green Party’ of Hamburg for example decided to form a coalition with the conservative ‘Christian Democratic Union’. After grim campaigns against each other ahead of the elections, this step might be surprising to a lot of people and finding a common point of view will not be easy for these two parties. One of the biggest contentious issue will possibly be the construction of a planed power station using black coal in Moorburg near the city of Hamburg.
Andrea Ypsilanty, top candidate of the ‘Social Democratic Party’ in Hesse, tried to get the ‘Free Democratic Party’ into a coalition together with the ‘Green Party. But the liberal party did not want to depart from their word, not to collaborate with the ‘Social Democratic Party’, given during the campaigns.
Dealing with this failure the ‘Social Democratic Party’ got into deep trouble. Andrea Ypsilanty did not want to loose her power in Hesse, which would have given Roland Koch, front-runner of the ‘Christian Democratic Party’ and former head of the state of Hesse, the chance of ruling the federal state again. Instead, Ypsilanty tinkered with the idea of forming a coalition with the ‘Green Party’ and relying on the ‘Left Party’ to vote for her as prime minister of Hesse. This would not only have meant that she would have broken her word, she gave during the campaigns, she would also have had to govern the state without a majority in the parliament. A real coalition with the ‘Left Party’ still seems to be obnoxious for the ‘Social Democratic Party’ in Hesse.
Kurt Beck, national leader of the ‘Social Democratic Party’ at the time of the election in Hesse, suggested to open up to this new situation and to try to find a way of building coalitions with the ‘Left Party’. He stated the government in the state of Berlin as an example that an administration, build out of the ‘Social Democratic Party’ and the ‘Left Party’, might work quite well. Nevertheless the idea of Andrea Ypsilanty caused a hug discussion within the ‘Social Democratic Party’ and possibly this was one of the points that, in the end, let to the resignation of Kurt Beck.
Hesse is without a government able to rule for more then half a year now. And even the latest approach of Andrea Ypsilanti to become the prime minister failed due to opt-outs from members of her own party, who did not want to cooperate with the ‘Left-Party’. Due to all this the inhabitants of Hesse get another chance to vote in January. It remains to be seen, whether the outcome of the new election makes it easier for the parties to build a government.
Obviously the new five party system is not yet accepted, but the time seems to be running out, especially as the election for the German parliament in 2009 is coming up. Looking at the ‘big coalition’ between the ‘Christian Democratic’ and the ‘Social Democratic Party’ ruling Germany gives an idea of the possibilities and especially of the problems that come along with governments that do not have to much in common. The power of the ‘Left Party’ might be growing in the upcoming years and with the actual political situation there is no doubt that the system needs to adjust to the new situation a lot faster than it took to accept the ‘Green Party’.